Housing Collapse

Articles on the housing collapse.

These satellite images of Spain are more than just a little reminiscent of China. They show Iberian ghost cities. Ghost airports. Ghost highways. A ghost high speed rail system. Of course, the Chinese ghost cities are far larger, but the scope of Spain’s problems may be proportionately larger.

It’s all a house of cards. And the higher they build it, the shakier the whole structure becomes.

You can see more photos of the Spanish ghost cities at the Business Insider link below.

valdeluz-spain

Valdeluz, where 700 people live in a town planned for 30,000

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We have to quit watching CNBC. There are mornings when it’s tough to get out of bed to bring you another harbinger of doom and gloom here at EconomicCollapse.net. If we make the mistake of turning on CNBC it quickly becomes time for an early morning Valium cocktail. Shaken, not stirred.

This is one of those mornings. The latest stats, as revealed by CNBC, show that the economy is shakier than a dashboard hula dancer.

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If there are two words you don’t want to hear used to describe the economy they might be “horror show.” But that’s exactly how CNBC and one prominent investment fund manager described it.

The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London.

“It seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the US economy has disappointed expectations recently,” said Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday.

“US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing.”

“And that’s just in the last week and a bit,” said Riddell.
Pointing to the dramatic turnaround in the Citigroup “Economic Surprise Index” for the United States, Riddell said the tumble in a matter of months to negative from positive is almost as bad as the situation before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Bad to worse. Worse to worser. Worser to worst. It don’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. And it don’t take a crystal ball to see which way the economy turns.

Source: CNBC

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Housing recovery? What housing recovery?

by Lee on May 31, 2011 15:01 pm · Comments/Link

No matter how often nor how loudly government officials trumpet an imminent recovery in the housing market, take it with a grain of salt. A very large grain of salt. Fact is, there’s a huge backlog of foreclosed properties out there and that means any housing recovery is a pipedream.

MSNBC explored the depth of the crisis:

Sales of homes in some stage of foreclosure declined in the first three months of the year, but they still accounted for 28 percent of all home sales — a share nearly six times higher than what it would be in a healthy housing market.

Foreclosure sales, which include homes purchased after they received a notice of default or were repossessed by lenders, hit the highest share of overall sales in a year during the first quarter, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

“It’s an astronomically high number,” said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac. “In a normal market, you’re looking at the percentage of homes sold in foreclosure to be below 5 percent.”

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The thought of a well-manicured hedge fund manager dirtying his silky-soft hands with a shovel and manure might be almost comical, but economic collapse is no laughing matter.

The simple fact is, hedge fund managers are scooping up personal farms and investment farm acreage as fast as they can write the checks.

These guys are like cockroaches and Observer tells the tale of their survivalist instincts:

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Consider this another sign of the impending apocalypse: Not only are more Americans losing their homes to foreclosures, but now those with low mortgages and even no mortgages are tapping what little equity they have left with reverse mortgages.

It used to be that a reverse mortgage was the almost the exclusive domain of widows and other little old ladies with no other way to fund their retirements. But now that their IRAs and other investment portfolios have been decimated by what some call recession and others call depression, younger retirees are jumping in.

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I’m doing a re-fi on my house and just got the appraisal back yesterday. The bad news: It’s now worth about half what it was worth three years ago. The good news: Well, there really isn’t any.

Of course, I live in California so the drop has probably been more precipitous than the drop in most areas, but still…

The point is that anyone who tells you the real estate market is getting better is dreaming. Or lying. Take your choice.

Want more proof than the idle ramblings of a disgruntled California homeowner? Check out the latest findings from Zillow Real Estate Research:

“Home values fell three percent in the first quarter of this year, marking a pace of decline not seen since 2008 when the housing recession was at its worst.

“Home values fell one percent between February and March and 8.2 percent from March 2010. The cumulative decline in home values since the market peak is now 29.5 percent (see Figures 1 and 2).”

These charts tell the terrible tale:

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Yes, we know there’s a horrible mixed metaphor in the headline, but both halves of it just seem so appropriate that we’re willing to overlook our own literary faux pas to make the point.

The Associated Press previews another act in the upcoming economic calamity:

Fannie Mae asked the government Friday for an additional $8.5 billion in aid after declining home prices caused more defaults on loans guaranteed by the mortgage giant.

The company said it lost $8.7 billion in the first three months of the year. Those losses led Fannie to request more than three times the federal aid it sought in the previous quarter. The total cost of rescuing the government-controlled mortgage buyer is nearing $100 billion – the most expensive bailout of a single company.

Combined with the bailout of sibling company Freddie Mac, the government expects their rescue to cost taxpayers about $259 billion. That money will cover the mortgage giants’ losses on soured loans made in the midst of the housing bubble.

Home prices declined on average 1.8 percent across the country during the January-March quarter, Fannie Mae said. That led to more foreclosures and to homeowners abandoning houses that were worth less than they owed on their mortgages.

Things are horrible! But things are getting better! Just ask Fannie Mae President and CEO Michael Williams:
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“The best investment is real estate.” How many times have you heard that one? It certainly was a great investment from 1991 to 2005, during the fastest increase in home prices ever. But then that lead to the biggest and fastest decline in home prices ever. So, if you’re a great market timer, real estate is a fabulous investment. But if you’re like every other dumb schmuck, it doesn’t always work out all that great.

median single family home price

In fact, think about this: If you bought the median priced single-family home at the 1979 peak, it’s actually lost 8.5% of its value, in inflation-adjusted dollars. Hard to believe? Take a look at the chart.

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Late to the party, 60 Minutes finally covers the missing/forged mortgage paperwork fiasco known as Foreclosuregate. Unbelievably, they even said the words, “double dip.” What’s the world coming to?

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As most readers know by now, new home sales are now at their lowest level in nearly 50 years. We know what to attribute this to: the huge number of existing homes for sale, falling household income, chronic unemployment, no more high-leverage loans, shifting demographics, and the new normal of watching our pennies. But, there is something else I hadn’t thought about until yesterday.

I was listening to a local Saturday afternoon radio show on real estate, and they had on a former (aren’t they all now?) builder. He was talking about a new upper market home he took a tour of, with the ten foot ceilings and 8 foot doors. From the outside, at a distance, it looked great, like it just might be worth paying the premium over a similar (on-paper) used home. But on closer inspection, he quickly noticed the cheap materials and craftsmanship.

The eight-foot doors were hollow, the woodwork was paint grade prefab, the carpets were indoor-outdoor, the moulding was cheap, the windows thin and tract-style, the kitchen had low-end counter tops and appliances, and so on. And, as a builder, he could tell that the craftsmanship was shoddy.

Although the price of land is lower for homebuilders now, materials have skyrocketed in this commodity price boom, and cities are imposing fees upon fees to make bring in much needed cash. With the competition of millions of used homes, both non-distressed and distressed, builders have to cut corners where they can.

So not only are the new homes more expensive than a same sized used home in a similar area, they are not built as well. It’s better to buy a used home and spend the difference on doing a little custom remodeling.

I know it’s not a big factor in the overall scheme of things. But it’s just one more thing. I don’t think new home sales will see much of a pickup until we’re closer to the end of this decade than to where we are now.

Have you seen this in your town?

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New-home sales fell 16.9 percent last month. That’s a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000 homes, the lowest number in nearly 50 years. 700,000-a-year pace that economists view as healthy.

What I find interesting in this chart of annualized home sales for the period 1963 – 2011 is the action at the bottom of each recession, shown in blue. In each case, the ending of the recessions saw a coinciding sharp recovery in home sales. In each case expect the last recession, that is. Note how it there was a minuscule attempt at a recovery, and then a complete breakdown.

Housing has years to go until we see a reversal.

annualized home sales 1963-2011

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Chart thanks to CalculatedRisk.com

A shout out to my good buddy Optimist Dave, who hates looking at these kinds of charts. :)

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New Home Sales Fall Through the Floor

by Mark on March 23, 2011 7:26 am · Comments/Link

Is anyone who reads this blog really surprised? Pat yourself on the back, as you and I are much, much smarter than the snake oil salespeople on CNBC and in the government. I just told you yesterday, if you want to sell your home this year, get moving quickly and get real. AP reports:

Buyers of new homes plunged in February to the fewest on records dating back nearly half a century, a dismal sign for an already-weak housing market.

New-home sales fell 16.9 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000 homes, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It’s the third straight monthly decline and far below the 700,000-a-year pace that economists view as healthy.

The median price of a new home dropped nearly 14 percent to $202,100, the lowest since December 2003. New home prices are now 30 percent higher than of those being resold.

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Glenn Beck has the goods on leftists who are planning to crash the stock market and create an environment of economic instability in which they can push their socialist agenda. Call Glenn crazy if you wish (I don’t), but I hope those who do actually take the time to listen to this video If you don’t want to listen to Glenn Beck, just skip down to the third video, which is simply the complete tape of Stephen Lerner.

This coalition of unions, community groups, lawmakers will begin by attempting bringing down JP Morgan Chase by starting a campaign to get a million people who, by the first of May, will agree to stop paying their mortgages and demonstrate in the streets of New York.

There are three videos below, first there’s Glenn Beck on his TV show, then Glenn beck discussing the same on his radi show, and finally the unedited full tape of the scumbags Glenn cannot be accused of taking things out of context.

Video 1 of 3: Glenn Beck on TV

Video 2 of 3: Glenn Beck on his radio show

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5 Things that Keeps Gary Shilling Up at Night

by Mark on March 22, 2011 12:50 pm · Comments/Link

Stocks are up, the VIX is down and Dear Leader is in charge of America. What is hell could there be to worry about?

Gary Shilling, author of The Age of Deleveraging, has a few things troubling him. Things like coming trade and current account deficits in Japan, a hard landing in China, a continuing housing crisis that will see another 20% fall in prices, an oil shock and the European sovereign debt crisis. He never gets to the latter in the video, but we know it’s #5.

Source: Yahoo Tech Ticker

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