China

We normally don’t excerpt blocks of copy as large as the one in this story, but we’re making an exception in this case.

Zhou Ruijin is the former editor of the official People’s Daily. He’s a powerful pro-reform elder in the Chinese Communist Party. So it seems wise to pay attention to his words when he warns his cohorts about the potential “loss of government credibility and disintegration of popular support.”

The China Media Project translates Ruijin’s dire warning:

Lately I’ve had a deep sense of anxiety as I’ve watched one occurrence after another of tensions between governments and people at the local level, which have become more an more acute. A number of officials at the local government level have abused their powers, again and again trampling the human rights, right to life and rights of property of ordinary people. Those affected turn to petitioning, make contact with the media, or go online to report their stories. If they turn to legal proceedings and other like methods in an attempt to protect the legitimate rights granted them in the constitution, they find that these channels for voicing their interests are blocked. What’s more, local governments will level such charges as “slander” (诽谤) or “extortion of the government” (敲诈政府) to go after them, “arresting them across provincial borders” (跨省抓捕) or simply locking them away in mental hospitals claiming that they are “psychological unsound.” Not long ago, Wuhan petitioner Xu Wu (徐武) was lucky enough to escape from a “mental hospital” after being locked up for four years, but then was openly dragged away by Wuhan police from the courtyard of Guangdong’s Southern Television (TVS) and again committed to a mental hospital. There was a buzz of public opinion around the country, but authorities in Hubei simply responded by suppressing media reporting.

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Administrations in the United States always release bad news late on Friday afternoons after most reporters have taken off work a little early and lined up at their local watering holes.

Apparently Saturday morning is the Chinese equivalent.

Today China announced that inflation in June his 6.4%, solidly above the 6.2% analysts had expected, clocking in at a 3-year high (according to Bloomberg).

This is one of Beijing’s big worries, and it contradicts recent comments from Premier Wen Jiabao that inflation in China had been whipped.

If the Chinese act quickly, they can probably get a good deal on a warehouse full of “Whip Inflation Now” buttons and bumper stickers left over from the Ford administration.

On the other hand, we might want to hold on to them because it’s pretty sure that we’re going to need them soon, too.

Source: Business Insider

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Between checking the health of patients who have already achieved room temperature in Europe and trying to peer through the smoke and mirrors obscuring China’s economic health, these are very busy days for the analysts as Moody’s.

“China may have understated the debt load of local governments by Rmb 3,500bn ($541bn), a hole in public finances that is likely to inflict damage on banks, Moody’s Investors Service said on Tuesday.”

Earlier in the year, China reported that provinces, cities and counties owed Rmb10,700bn. Analysts dutifully praised the government’s authoritative reportage and nodded in agreement that the debt levels were manageable.

But now Moody’s is having second thoughts. The rating agency upgraded China’s sovereign rating just last year, but now says its audit may have missed a swath of highly “problematic” loans.

“We conclude that the potential scale of problem loans at Chinese banks may be closer to our stress case than our base case. This is clearly a negative trend for creditors,” said Yvonne Zhang, one of the authors of the report.

Three words: House of cards.

Source: Financial Times

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Business Insider has done a great job of exposing the mystery of the Chinese ghost cities. They earned that appropriate name because they are new, modern cities without a living soul in residence.

This week BI was at it again, publishing the latest satellite images of new ghost cities that have popped up since they first covered the story a year ago:

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We paraphrase. That’s not quite how the President worded his offer to bail out the Greeks, but that sums it up in language that’s been stripped of all the political gobbledygook.

CNBC reports on the President’s generous offer to bail out the Greeks by digging our own hole a little deeper:

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Gravity seems to be exerting is inexorable force on the U.S. currency. What once went up is now reaching new lows.

The dollar fell to a one-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday and a record low against the Swiss franc after a Chinese official said the greenback would continue to weaken versus other major currencies.

Remember that old Chubby Checker record from the early 60s called Limbo Rock? One of it’s lyrics asked the musical question, “How low can you go?”

The dollar index fell to a low of 73.601, the lowest since May 5, while the greenback fell to 0.8328 Swiss francs on trading platform EBS a record low.

“China has been growing its share of U.S. securities quite aggressively in the past, and the threat that they will be selling these holdings has always been there,” said Adam Myers, senior forex strategist at Credit Agricole.

“But this is not a credible threat as a sell-off will lead to a steepening of the U.S. yield curve which will hurt the U.S. and the Chinese, who are dependent on the U.S. economy. But I do agree that the dollar is headed lower in the long term.”

The Chinese and American economies are like Siamese twins who don’t get along. They’d really like to be separated, but they both know they can’t survive the drastic surgery the separation would require.

So to quote Mr. Checker, how low can we go?

Source: CNBC

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The great wallet of China

by Lee on May 27, 2011 1:00 am · 3 comments

There are at least two certainties concerning addictions. One is that they can only be sustained by escalation. The other is that escalation is ultimately unsustainable.

As a nation we are beginning to find this out. Currently we have an addiction to cheap goods and even cheaper money. And it just so happens we can get both of these from the same place. That place is not called the great wallet of China, but it would be rather funny if it were, and not entirely inaccurate.

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According to the “experts” China’s booming economy will surpass that of the United States. Possibly, according to those same experts, by as soon as 2025. It’s a juggernaut that cannot be stopped.

Of course, there’s an alternate point of view that gets very little play in the media. And that point of view is that the Chinese economy is built on equal measures of high technology, cheap labor, smoke and mirrors.

CNBC exposes some of the cracks that are starting to appear in the facade:

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5 Things that Keeps Gary Shilling Up at Night

by Mark on March 22, 2011 12:50 pm · Comments/Link

Stocks are up, the VIX is down and Dear Leader is in charge of America. What is hell could there be to worry about?

Gary Shilling, author of The Age of Deleveraging, has a few things troubling him. Things like coming trade and current account deficits in Japan, a hard landing in China, a continuing housing crisis that will see another 20% fall in prices, an oil shock and the European sovereign debt crisis. He never gets to the latter in the video, but we know it’s #5.

Source: Yahoo Tech Ticker

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Next Media Animation, a Taiwanese company that creates animation and animated news has created new cartoon mocking President Obama as a lapdog of sorts to Chinese President Hu Jintao.

It’s disgusting that Barack Obama has brought our nation to this level. The appeasing, the bowing, the poor negotiating, the “respect” given to statist regimes, has caused leaders of other nations to disrespect him, as a man and as a president.

This nation is crumbling from within, economically, and in the view of the world’s nations. Hopefully 2012 will deliver a president with some backbone.

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China in 2030: “Now America Works for Us”

by Mark on October 23, 2010 10:19 am · 5 comments

Citizens Against Government Waste has created a video that’s that depicts a Chinese professor, in the year 2030, lecturing to students on why the United States of America collapsed. The reasons are the ones we are now fearing, yet not reversing: stimulus spending, health care policy, government intervention into private industry, high taxation and government debt. The professor ends his lecture with “Now they work for us,” and the students laugh. And laugh.

It’s no laughing matter.

Here is the transcript of the video:

[Bejing, China 2030 A.D.]

Why do great nations fail?

The Ancient Greeks…
the Roman Empire…
the British Empire…
and the United States of America.

They all make the same mistakes,
turning their back on principles that made them great.
America tried to spend and tax itself out of a great recession.
Enormous so-called “stimulus” spending,
massive changes to health care,
government takeovers of private industries,
and crushing debt.

Of course, we owned most of their debt…
so now they work for us.

[laughter]

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